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The downslide of Shiv Sena began with the departure
of Chhagan Bhujbal. Bhujbal was disgusted with the factionalism
in Sena being ruled by an autocratic Balasaheb Thackeray
and when he parted ways, optimists in Sena thought he
would go the way others went in the past - in oblivion
and political wilderness.
Dr Hemchandra Gupte is one of those one remembers
who, disgusted with the style of Thackeray, decided
to leave the party. The violent Sainiks made his life
difficult. One still remember how his hands shook during
the critical period. There also was Bandu Shingre who
had the audacity to form Prati-Shiv Sena; to end up
in oblivion.
This didn't happen to Bhujbal. All Balasaheb's horses
and all Balasaheb's men couldn't put the humpty dumpty
together again. Bhujbal's bungalow was attacked by violent
sainiks and Thackeray used his Thakeri language, as
he proudly calls this volley of abuse against Bhujbal,
tried to finish him in elections making it a personal
prestige issue but failed. Bhujbal went on to become
the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra and in fact,
scared Thackeray with arrest warrant!
With public memory being what it is this became an
old story till the memories were revived when Narayan
Rane dumped Sena. Rane's departure has been a bigger
jolt for Balasaheb than that of Bhujbal. Shiv Sena candidate
opposite him lost his deposit despite every senior Shiv
Sena leader campaigning for him. Rane's margin was amazing.
Shiv Sena has been wiped out in Malvan and Rane is a
threat that may spell doom for this party.
The way Thackeray handled the election of Priya Dutt
sent mixed signals even to his own sainiks. The sainiks
were further demoralized when hardly anyone that mattered
campaigned for Madhukar Sarpotdar. Losing this election
was a shame specially when a series of happenings seemed
against Priya Dutt. Abu Salem's presence threatened
to open Dutt's Pandara's Box and the accusations against
Sanjay Dutt were again on the front pages.
But Shiv Sena couldn't take advantage of this situation.
No one is sure whether Raj Thackeray, who kept away
from Malvan elections, really has a back problem or
simply refused to campaign for the Sena. Many believe
that Raj Thackeray, as the leader of Shiv Sena, can
be a better choice over Balasaheb's first choice, his
son Udhav. The issues between Udhav Thackeray and cousin
Raj Thackeray have not been sorted out. Not yet, in
any case.
Shiv Sena still is the ruling party in the Municipal
Corporation of Greater Mumbai, budget of which is more
than some of the states in India. But this is the last
year. A year later, corporation elections will be the
final answer. If Shiv Sena lost in those elections,
it will take the party a l-o-n-g time to make a comeback.
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