the threats from within

mahendra vaid*

Friday, May 13, 2005

When Home Minister Shivraj Patil opened the Integrated Operations Centre (IOC), he was assailed with a complex system of simultaneous display of maps, of audio and video conferencing facilities, of high-capacity computers and telecom systems. These form the crux of a machinery that facilitates the gathering of data from across the country, compiling and collating it and feeding it to the relevant authorities. IOC is intended to be an internal security crisis management system, that will facilitate quick decisions and relaying of these decisions to personnel on the ground.

India’s internal security has several contours or areas of concern: espionage activities by foreign missions in India and espionage by other agencies; activities of Pakistan’s ISI; funding of terrorists; border management, trafficking in drugs and arms and other items banned by law; smuggling of goods, fake currency and money-laundering.

In recent years, the main focus has been on militancy in Jammu and Kashmir and in the North-East. To this we may add the third conflict zone that is spreading fast - the activities of the Naxalites and Maoists.

The Internal Security (IS) performance of the UPA Government’s policies and performance has been marked by a willingness to talk to everyone, without preconditions. While this has created a general atmosphere that is conducive for a political dialogue, the response has been mixed. There has been an effort to continue with the dialogue process that the NDA Government had tentatively begun so far as the Naga insurgents are concerned by opening a dialogue with the NSCN (Isac-Muivah). Three ministers – Oscar Fernandes, Pritivhraj Chavan and S. Reghupathy – have been nominated to provide the necessary political edge and assurances required in a peace dialogue.

The other groups are closely watching this process and its outcome. The Hurriyat Conference and other groups in Jammu and Kashmir and ULFA, Bodo and other groups are waiting and watching and are generally buying time.

However, the most significant, and risky effort of the UPA Government has been to talk to the Naxalites. The Rajasekhara Reddy Government in Andhra Pradesh sought to keep its election promise to open a dialogue with the Naxals with full support from the Centre.


Current Scenario

The agenda paper circulated at the Chief Ministers’ Conference on Internal Security said that the overall internal security and law and order situation in the country remained “largely under control” during 2004-05. “There was a perceptible improvement in the situation in terms of level of violence and number of incidents and deaths in J&K. Also, there was a decline in the trend of violence in the North East.” The exception was Manipur that recorded 31 per cent increase in violence. The paper noted that the extent of Naxal violence remained unchanged, more or less at the same level as 2004-04.

In J&K, the violence was “significantly lower” during 2004, leading to “an exceptionally high flow” of 3.5 lakh tourists to the Valley and four lakh pilgrims performing Amarnath yatra. There was “a noticeable drop” of 73 per cent in processions and demonstrations, 57 per cent decline in hartals called by the separatists and terrorists. The number of terrorist-related incidents came down by 24 per cent compared to 2003, while the number of civilian and security forces personnel killed came down by 11 per cent and 10 per cent respectively. Infiltration, dropped significantly from August 2004, came down to 507 compared to 1313, reduced by 61 per cent.

An analysis of the violence figures in the individual states in the North-East shows an overall decline, except in Manipur, where a prolonged agitation led to a 31 per cent spurt in violent incidents. Tripura, however, recorded a 67 per cent decline in killing of civilians.

The Union and State governments are engaging the underground groups in dialogue. A number of them signed agreements on suspension of their operations in 2004. These included the Montu Koloi faction of NLFT (B), NLFT (N) led by Nanaybasi Jamatia and ANVC and NSCN (Isac-Muivah), NSCN (Khaplang), DHD and UPDS.

The government has opened lines of communication with the National Democratic Front of Bodoland (NDFB) and with the United Liberation of Front of Asom (ULFA), both of whom have continuously been engaged in violent acts to get known. ULFA, in particular, has shown qualified interest in holding a dialogue with the government. Prime Minister Manmohan Singh has said that Assam’s “sovereignty” is not a negotiable issue. But his office has kept the communication channel open.

The Home Ministry’s paper speaks of “strategic threat” to IS from terrorist-related violence in J&K and NE, Links of the Indian Naxal groups with the Communist Party of Nepal (Maoist), the nexus between terrorist groups and organized crime syndicates, funding of terrorist activities through hawala network, injecting of fake Indian currency notes and drug trafficking. The estimated number of terrorists operating in J&K has come down to about 2100 from 3500 in early 2003, thanks to concerted efforts to stop them and the low level of infiltration. However, it notes: “despite the continued composite dialogue and a number of confidence building measures, militants sponsored by their mentors across the border retain the capability to strike at and intimidate targets and sustain violence and infiltration at a certain level.”


The Way Ahead

The conference decided to review the entire coastline and establish a machinery that would ensure its security. The idea is that with increasing vigilance on the land borders, coastal areas might be used by the terrorist groups for landing weapons/explosives in tandem with the criminal elements. This is a move that comes a good 12 years after it was discovered that explosives that were used in the serial Bombay blasts in 1993 were landed on the Konkan coast in Maharashtra.

The Home Ministry notes that hawala is a commonly used mode of transfer of funds including fake currency notes to terrorist groups like LeT, HUA, HUM, HUJI based in Pakistan and HM and JUM based in POK are reported to have been receiving large funds from across the border essentially through the hawala route. Their funding is also done through drug trafficking. This needs to be checked.

To end this serious subject on a zestful note, the task on the internal security front, is one of a cleaner. It does not matter how much dirt has been removed and the linen cleaned. The stains that persist, per force, form the never-ending task that remains to be wiped out for good.



*Journalist