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The United Nation’s latest World Population Prospects, released in New York says India will replace China as the world’s most populous country by around 2025-2030 and have almost 1.6 billion inhabitants by 2050 (2005: 1.1 billion). So far as the world population is concerned, it will increase by 2.6 billion or 40 per cent to 9.1 billion in the next 45 years. This is the result under the medium variant which assumes a decline in the fertility rate by 2050 to the natural replacement level of slightly over two children per woman of childbearing age.
Indian Perspective
In view of gradual growth in population, (India today has one billion plus population) the Government of India has taken ample steps to stabilize the situation, the primary one being the National Population Policy of 2000. It provides a policy framework for advancing goals and prioritization strategies during the next decade to meet the reproductive and child health need of the people of India and to achieve needed replacement levels (Total Fertility Rate) by 2010.
The long-term objective of the country’s family welfare programme is to achieve population stabilization by 2045 at a level consistent with requirement of sustained economic growth, social development and environmental protection. Since 1951, the year when India’s Family Planning Programme was launched; its demographic and health profiles have changed radically. It is worth mentioning that between 1951 and 2002, Crude Birth Rate (CBR) declined from 40.8 to 25.0 per thousand population and Infant Mortality Rate (IMR) from an average of 146 went down to 63 per thousand live births. While the overall demographic profile has improved in India its pace and distribution are found to be slow and uneven. There are significant regional and State differentials. The States vary not only in their geographical size and population count, but also in terms of population density, socio-economic condition, cultural practices, social norms regarding status of women in society, marriage and many other factors that influence the fertility behaviour.
There are hopeful signs in many States. The States like Kerala, Tamil Nadu, Goa, Delhi and Andaman & Nicobar Islands, Chandigarh and Pondicherry have already achieved the replacement level of Total Fertility Rate (TFR) of 2.1 and other States like Karnataka, Andhra Pradesh, Maharashtra, Gujarat, Punjab, West Bengal, Arunachal Pradesh, Himachal Pradesh, Manipur, Sikkim, Daman and Diu and Lakshadweep hold the hope of controlling birth rates to reach the replacement level in near future. However, Assam, Bihar, Gujarat, Haryana, Madhya Pradesh, Rajasthan, Uttar Pradesh, Orissa, Meghalaya, Tripura and Dadra &Nagar Haveli are far behind the replacement level.
Initiatives Taken for Population Stabilization
The National Population Policy (NPP) has listed short and long-term goals to be achieved for population stabilization by the year 2010 and 2045. One of the key objectives is attainment of TFR of 2.1 by 2010 for the country. Poor performance in Bihar, Uttar Pradesh, Madhya Pradesh., Rajasthan and Orissa is proving to be a drag on national achievement. Therefore, unless urgent and focused interventions are undertaken to address the issues of reproductive and child health care in these States, the attainment of the demographic goal set in the NPP, 2000 seems unlikely. The three new States of Uttaranchal, Jharkhand and Chattisgarh, have been included in the Empowered Action Group (EAG), both on account of unsatisfactory socio-demographic indicators and also to provide an impetus to the strengthening of the primary health care infrastructure, a prerequisite for efficient delivery of family welfare services. It is to be mentioned that EAG is an administrative mechanism established for the purpose of closely monitoring the implementation of Family Welfare programmes in the EAG States to facilitate the preparation of area specific programmes to address unmet needs. The EAG is chaired by the Union Minister of Health and Family Welfare and consists of Secretaries of various related departments, Advisor, Planning Commission, NGOs and experts. During the Tenth Plan an amount of Rs. 250 crores has been allotted under the domestic budget for EAG schemes. So far, EAG has sanctioned funds amounting to Rs. 108 crore to the eight States to address their unmet needs in respect of Reproductive Child Health (RCH) camps, outreach camps, strengthening of rural health infrastructure and the like.
On May 12, this year, Prime Minister, Dr. Manmohan Singh released an ‘Advocacy Briefing Kit’ prepared by the Indian Association of Parliamentarians on Population and Development (IAPPD) in support of the Centre’s population stabilization programmes, where he said, people would be encouraged to make sensible reproductive choices. The Prime Minister emphasized on the need to create an environment where basic indicators of community health were strong and infant mortality rate was under control. Dr. Singh referred to the ‘Kerala experience’ for underlining the role of sensible policies and education in stabilizing population and reducing infant mortality rate. According to Dr. Ambumani Ramdoss, the Union Minister of Health and Family Welfare, National Rural Health Mission also aims to tackle such issues with the help of grass root institutions.
Mandate of National Common Minimum Programme
The National Common Minimum Programme (NCMP) primarily aims at strengthening comprehensive primary health care for the population stabilization programme focusing on high fertility States as observed from the successful experiences of Southern and other States.
Need for Population Studies
Today, population studies and population research have emerged as important‘ activities bearing considerable relevance to planning and implementation of socio-economic programmes. For this, there exists a network of population research centres spread across different States. At present, there are 18 such centres carrying out research on topics pertaining to population stabilization, demography, socio-demographic surveys and communication aspects of population control and family welfare programme.
The entire country now aims to minimize the rapid growth of population, as it knows well that more the number of people, lesser is employment and more dependence. More the dependence, lower is the standard of living and lesser happiness.
**Information Assistant, PIB, Kolkata
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