|
Quarterly GDP at factor cost at constant (1993-94) prices for Q2 of 2004-05 is estimated at Rs. 3,47,308 crore, as against Rs. 3,25,857 crore in Q2 of 2003-04, showing a growth rate of 6.6 per cent over the corresponding quarter of previous year. The Central Statistical Organisation (CSO), Ministry of Statistics and Programme Implementation released here today the quarterly estimates of Gross Domestic Product (GDP) for the second quarter [July-September (Q2)] of 2004-05, both at constant (1993-94) and current prices.
The sectors which registered significant growth in Q2 of 2004-05 over Q2 of 2003-04 are ‘manufacturing’ at 9.3 per cent, ‘electricity, gas and water supply’ sector at 9.2 per cent, ‘construction’ at 5.2 per cent, ‘trade, hotels, transport and communication’ at 11.6 per cent, and ‘financing, insurance, real estate and business services’ at 5.9 per cent. The growth rate in ‘agriculture, forestry & fishing’ at (-) 0.8 per cent, ‘mining and quarrying’ sector at 4.8 per cent, and ‘community, social and personal services’ at 4.6 per cent, registered lower growth rates in Q2 of 2004-05.
According to the information furnished by the Department of Agriculture & Cooperation (DAC) on the likely production of crops during the Kharif season of 2004-05, which has been used in compiling the estimates of GDP from agriculture in Q2 of 2004-05, the production of rice, coarse cereals, and pulses has declined by 3.8 per cent, 23.0 per cent, and 25.9 per cent, respectively during the Kharif season of 2004-05 over the corresponding season in the previous year. Among the commercial crops, production of oilseeds is expected to decline by 9.2 per cent during the Kharif season of 2004-05. While production of cotton is expected to increase by 0.5 per cent, that of sugarcane is expected to decline by 0.3 per cent, during 2004-05 over their estimated production in the previous year.
According to the latest estimates available on the Index of Industrial Production (IIP), the index of mining, manufacturing and electricity registered growth rates of 4.5
per cent, 8.7 per cent, and 9.6 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2004-05 as compared to
the growth rates of 2.9 per cent, 7.6 per cent, and 1.9 per cent in these sectors during Q2 of 2003-04. The key indicators of construction sector, namely, cement and steel registered growth rates of 6.6 per cent and 3.4 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2004-05 as against the growth rates of 6.0 per cent and 10.2 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2003-04.
Among the services sectors, the key indicators of railways, namely, the net tonne kilometers and passenger kilometers have shown growth rates of 8.2 per cent and 8.4 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2004-05. The other key indicators, namely, production of commercial vehicles, cargo handled at major ports, cargo handled by civil aviation, passengers handled by civil aviation, total stock of telephones including WLL and cellular phones, aggregate bank deposits, bank credits and total revenue expenditure (excluding interest payments) of central government, respectively have shown growth rates of 17.1 per cent, 11.9 per cent, 18.6 per cent, 18.8 per cent, 33.2 per cent, 14.1 per cent, 23.9 per cent and (-) 4.5 per cent, during Q2 of 2004-05 over Q2 of 2003-04.
Estimates at current prices
GDP at factor cost at current prices in Q2 of 2004-05 is estimated at Rs. 6,56,576 crore, as against Rs. 5,73,349 crore in Q2, 2003-04, showing a rise of 14.5 per cent.
The wholesale price index (WPI) in respect of the groups, food articles, fish, minerals, manufactured products, electricity, and all commodities, has risen by 3.6 per cent, 5.6 per cent, 137.7 per cent, 7.5 per cent, 2.0 per cent and 8.0 per cent, respectively during Q2 of 2004-05 over Q2 of 2003-04. The consumer price index for industrial workers (CPI-IW) has shown a rise of 4.2 per cent during Q2 of 2004-05 over Q2 of 2003-04.
Estimates of GDP at factor cost and the growth rates, by kind of economic activity, for Q2 and H1 (April-September) of 2004-05 and the corresponding periods in 2003-04 at constant (1993-94) and current prices, are given in the following Statements (1 to 4 )
STATEMENT 1: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2004-05
(at 1993-94 prices)
industry
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic Product
Percentage change
over previous year
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2003-04
2004-05
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1. agriculture, forestry, & fishing
72126
54205
72194
57918
74615
57460
0.1
6.9
3.4
-0.8
2. mining & quarrying
7292
7354
7458
7498
7916
7861
2.3
2.0
6.1
4.8
3. manufacturing
53547
55359
57107
59458
61695
64963
6.6
7.4
8.0
9.3
4. electricity, gas & water supply
7818
7933
8194
8163
8709
8918
4.8
2.9
6.3
9.2
5. construction
16784
16655
17774
17721
18415
18644
5.9
6.4
3.6
5.2
6. trade, hotels, transport & commn.
73907
74164
79288
81529
87986
91016
7.3
9.9
11.0
11.6
7. financing, ins., real est. & bus.
services
41513
42008
43866
44713
46933
47364
5.7
6.4
7.0
5.9
8. community, social & personal
services
38349
42403
41961
48856
45851
51081
9.4
15.2
9.3
4.6
GDP at factor cost
311335
300082
327842
325857
352119
347308
5.3
8.6
7.4
6.6
STATEMENT 2: QUARTERLY ESTIMATES OF GDP FOR Q2 (JULY-SEPTEMBER) OF 2004-05
(at current prices)
industry
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic Product
Percentage change
over previous year
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2003-04
2004-05
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
Q1
Q2
1. agriculture, forestry & fishing
126383
96401
129230
102984
135970
106627
2.3
6.8
5.2
3.5
2. mining & quarrying
14402
14692
14840
14773
20932
24585
3.0
0.5
41.1
66.4
3. manufacturing
81377
85480
91425
96142
104432
112952
12.3
12.5
14.2
17.5
4. electricity, gas & water supply
11302
11911
12631
12658
13808
14108
11.8
6.3
9.3
11.5
5. construction
32825
33259
36900
36981
40194
42006
12.4
11.2
8.9
13.6
6. trade, hotels, transport & commn.
113932
116030
128268
130723
147377
154394
12.6
12.7
14.9
18.1
7. financing, ins., real est. & bus.
services
73558
75964
82552
84515
92859
96700
12.2
11.3
12.5
14.4
8. community, social & personal
services
69777
78855
80674
94574
91845
105203
15.6
19.9
13.8
11.2
GDP at factor cost
523557
512591
576520
573349
647418
656576
10.1
11.9
12.3
14.5
Q1: April-June; Q2: July-September
STATEMENT 3: ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2004-05
(at 1993-94 prices)
Industry
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic Product
for H1 of
Percentage change
Over previous year H1
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2003-04
2004-05
1. agriculture, forestry and fishing
126331
130113
132075
3.0
1.5
2. mining and quarrying
14646
14956
15777
2.1
5.5
3. manufacturing
108906
116564
126658
7.0
8.7
4. electricity, gas and water supply
15751
16357
17627
3.8
7.8
5. construction
33439
35496
37058
6.1
4.4
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication
148071
160817
179003
8.6
11.3
7. financing, ins., real est. and bus. services
83521
88579
94298
6.1
6.5
8. community, social and personal services
80751
90817
96932
12.5
6.7
GDP at factor cost
611417
653699
699427
6.9
7.0
STATEMENT 4: ESTIMATE OF GDP FOR H1 (APRIL-SEPTEMBER) OF 2004-05
(at current prices)
Industry
APRIL-SEPTEMBER (H1)
(Rs. in crore)
Gross Domestic Product
for H1 of
Percentage change
Over previous year H1
2002-03
2003-04
2004-05
2003-04
2004-05
1. agriculture, forestry and fishing
222783
232214
242598
4.2
4.5
2. mining and quarrying
29094
29613
45517
1.8
53.7
3. manufacturing
166857
187567
217384
12.4
15.9
4. electricity, gas and water supply
23214
25289
27916
8.9
10.4
5. construction
66083
73881
82201
11.8
11.3
6. trade, hotels, transport and communication
229962
258991
301771
12.6
16.5
7. financing, ins., real est. and bus. services
149523
167066
189559
11.7
13.5
8. community, social and personal services
148632
175248
197048
17.9
12.4
GDP at factor cost
1036148
1149869
1303993
11.0
13.4
H1: April-September
|
