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Is this the end of Shiv Sena?
T he downslide of the Shiv Sena began with the departure of Chhagan Bhujbal. Bhujbal was disgusted with the factionalism in the Sena being ruled by the autocratic Balasaheb Thackeray. And when he quit, optimists in Sena thought he would go the same way others went in the past - into oblivion and political wilderness.
Dr Hemchandra Gupte is one of those who, disgusted with the style of Thackeray, decided to leave the party. The violent Sainiks made his life difficult. One still remember how his hands shook during that critical period. There was also Bandu Shingre, who had the audacity to form the Prati-Shiv Sena only to end up in oblivion.
But this didn't happen to Bhujbal. All Balasaheb's horses and all Balasaheb's men couldn't push the Humpty Dumpty off the wall. Bhujbal's bungalow was attacked by violent Sainiks and Thackeray used his Thakeri language (as he proudly calls his volley of abuse) against Bhujbal, trying to finish him in the elections, making it a personal prestige issue. But he failed. Bhujbal went on to become even the Deputy Chief Minister of Maharashtra and in fact, frightened Thackeray with an arrest warrant!
With public memory being short as it is, this became an old story, till the memories were revived recently when Narayan Rane dumped the Sena. Rane's departure has been a bigger jolt for Balasaheb than that of Bhujbal. The Shiv Sena candidate opposite him lost his deposit despite every senior Shiv Sena leader campaigning for him. Rane's margin was amazing. The Shiv Sena has been wiped out in Malvan, and Rane is a threat that may ultimately spell doom for this party.
The way Thackeray handled the election of Priya Dutt sent mixed signals even to his own Sainiks. They were further demoralized when hardly anyone that mattered campaigned for Madhukar Sarpotdar. Losing this election was a shame, specially when a series of happenings should have gone against against Priya Dutt. Abu Salem's presence threatened to open Dutt's Pandora's Box and the accusations against Sanjay Dutt were again on the front pages.
But the Shiv Sena couldn't take advantage of this situation. No one is sure whether Raj Thackeray, who kept away from the Malvan elections, really has a back problem or simply refused to campaign for the Sena. Many believe that Raj Thackeray, as a leader of the Shiv Sena, would be a better choice over Balasaheb's first choice, his son Uddhav. The issues between Uddhav Thackeray and his cousin Raj Thackeray have not been sorted out. Not yet, in any case.
The Shiv Sena is still the ruling party in the Municipal Corporation of Greater Mumbai, the budget of which is more than of some of the states in India . But this might be their last year. Next year, the Corporation elections will give the final answer. If the Shiv Sena loses in those elections, it will take the party a l-o-n-g time to make a comeback.
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